Posted On: Monday - September 23rd 2019 1:56PM MST
In Topics:   Immigration Stupidity  Websites  Trump  Pundits
Allan Wall, writing in VDare yesterday SAID IN SPANISH: “The Deal” With Mexico Is Working!—And Could Get Better, gave a more encouraging view of some accomplishments by President Trump on the immigration issue than you've heard from this guy recently. Other than from one particular writer whom I think means well but is a bit goofy, I have lots of confidence in getting the real truth out of all the writers on VDare.
Allan Wall is one of the best. With his very civil tone and eminently fair view of the politics of immigration from the other side, Mexican politicians and Mexican people, Mr. Wall's columns are well worth reading. The "Said in Spanish"articles come under that heading due to Mr. Wall's first-hand knowledge of the language and of Mexico. Mr. Wall lived in Mexico for a decade or so, and is married to a now-immigrant Mexican lady and has 2 half-Mexican kids. Besides his "Said in Spanish" series, named for his ability to give us the real story due to his Spanish fluency, his others are usually headed "Memo from Middle America", changed from "Memo from Mexico" after he moved back here about a decade or so ago.
Another pundit, Mr. Fred Reed, who moved the other direction and writes from Mexico now, is exasperatingly one-sided (Reed* this and this, just for starters!) about Americans vs. Mexicans. Allan Wall, on the other hand, has no animosity for either side and writes more like a decent human being.
After that long intro. let me just give the 3 points about which Mr. Wall is encouraged about on the Mexican immigration-invasion issue, straight from the article:
1) The Wall:
Trump’s first accomplishment: From May’s high of 144,255, apprehensions of illegals have steadily decreased: June 104,363, July 82,055, August 64,006. [Southwest Border Migration FY 2019, CBP.gov] The total dip from May is 56 percent. That’s impressive given that monthly number had risen steadily since January.As we've written multiple times (start here) there's really no reason for an actual wall, per se. This is why I worry that these stretches of wall are for show. They don't impress me as much as just a couple of high outwardly-curved, concertina-wire-topped fences with a 50 yard piece of no-man's land in between. I would consider the latter more serious, as it would be a way to get this thing done FOR REAL, not FOR SHOW, in a reasonable time.
That doesn’t mean Trump’s job is done, needless to say. The total for August 2019, after all, was higher than for any August since 2014, as CBP’s data show, and topped every August for the last 10 years. [U.S. credits Mexico, Central America for sharp drop in border arrests, by Alexandra Alper and Steve Holland, Reuters, September 9, 2019]
Still, Trump’s succeeding, and Mexico’s efforts have helped. The flow of Central Americans through Mexico to our border, then into the U.S., has slowed considerably. Trump deserves credit for thinking outside the box, and using trade policy as a tool to reduce illegal infiltration.
[As is always the case, the VDare article has dozens of links, which I haven't transferred here.]
Let me do more back-o-the-envelope calculations. Take a force of 10,000 men hired to do the physical work. Could teams of 10 not put up a 500 hundred yards of this stuff in a day's work? Yeah, it's not a kid's playground 3 ft. chainlink fence, but going 200 yards** daily (both fences) from a team of 10 with the proper equipment, such as earth movers, augers, snorklifts, etc., seems like child's play. (If this were the big one, WWII, a company would do lots more than this, with their lives at stake!) That means a mile in 9 days, but let's call it 2 weeks. 1,000 teams like this would do the whole border in a month! Now, OK, there are rough areas, streams, rock surfaces, and, worst of all management! TRIPLE IT - so 3 months. OK, only 5,000 men - that'd be 1/2 a year. I'd be fine with that. Come on, this is no Panana Canal, people!
I'm glad to see the building of some sections as just a symbolic gesture, as you'd have never seen that from another "Conservative" GOP Pres, much less the Hildabeast. However, symbology doesn't stop the influx. That brings me to the 2nd piece of encouragement.
2) The Deal:
Peak Stupidity, in a fit of peak* a few months ago wrote our worst-title-award-winning post The Brain-Fart of a Heel 3 months back. Per Allan Wall, here, we perhaps should not have been so hasty. It sounds like the Mexicans are doing their part to stop the human traffic from Central America. That is in their own interest anyway - the Guatemalans, Salvadorans, and such don't benefit Mexica passing through on that long trek, and just piss of the patriotic Gringos even more, as we can't tell them from Mexicans anyway. No country really wants the Africans ...
That said, consider what Mexico has done since it inked The Deal. For starters, as I recently reported, look at its strong stand against Africans, most notably in Tapachula, on Mexico’s own southern border, who demand travel visas to get to the United States. If that fracas had occurred before The Deal, Mexican authorities might well have just let them pass. After all, the Africans don’t want to stay in Mexico. And Mexicans don’t want them there.
Mexican media continue to report major apprehensions of illegal aliens. Milenio reported three on September 11:Mexico is committed to The Deal, which raises Trump’s second accomplishment: Mexican officials aren’t afraid to say so—they boast about the results.
• In Oaxaca, authorities stopped two tour buses that skirted a checkpoint. Inside were 40 illegals from Guatemala and El Salvador. They were taken into custody with two smugglers. The National Guard and National Institute of Migration carried out the operation. Each of the Central Americans had paid 5,000 pesos to be transported to Mexico City. [Rescatan a 40 migrantes en Oaxaca (40 Migrants Rescued in Oaxaca), by Oscar Rodriguez]
• 116 Central Americans (84 adults, 32 minors) from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras were inside four vehicles stopped in Acayucan, Veracruz. They were detained along with six presumed smugglers, although the four drivers attempted to escape. Veracruz state police stopped that load. [Aseguran a más de 100 migrantes en Veracruz (More than 100 migrants in Veracruz Detained), by Isabel Zamudio]
• In Miguel Aleman, across the border from Roma, Texas, Tamaulipas state police discovered and apprehended 19 Central Americans, mostly Guatemalans, hiding in a house. The detainees were awaiting transport to the United States. [Hallan a 19 migrantes en una casa en Miguel Alemán (19 Migrants Found in a House in Miguel Aleman)]
When it comes to Mexicans heading north though, I don't know how much the government of that country will help without a lot bigger threat. Just as with Fidel Castro's 1980 Mariel Boat-lift, they will get rid of, well, "not their best" and the money sent home from non-taxed income in American cash is no small amount of their economy. The number of illegals nabbed at the border is looking better, per Mr. Wall. Let's hope Trump allows, or is allowed to, press this threat of tariffs to keep the news good.
The thing is, we need a real system put in place, using E-verify, running daily raids on employers of illegals (an illegal practice) with fines like $10,000 per employee, routinely deporting anyone arrested for anything including a backlog of PARKING TICKETS. President Trump's Dept. of Justice could be doing this right now! He would have had to hire the right people and drained that part of the swamp first, though. He didn't. Without continuous processes going on like this, who says any of the good news will continue?
The 3rd accomplishment of Trump on this existential issue, per Mr. Wall is direct agreements with countries other than Mexico.
3) Other deals:
Trump’s third accomplishment: His deals with other Latin American countries that are part of the multi-country migration route.That's all good. None of that diplomacy would be necessary if we really did have a serious-country-type border barrier. President Trump can call it a "big beautiful wall" all he wants, as long as it's serious and comprehensive - yeah "comprehensive", we've heard that one before. "Comprehensive immigration reform" has always meant an AMNESTY, so beware of people saying "comprehensive". When Peak Stupidity writes "comprehensive" we mean roughly 1,900 miles.
In July, the Trump Administration made a Third-Country asylum deal with Guatemala in exchange for some guest worker slots. (That deal might be threatened by the change of administration in Guatemala).
Thanks to early September’s deal with El Salvador, its government has sent police and soldiers to its border with Guatemala “to patrol blind spots along its borders where migrant smugglers and transnational criminals operate.” [El Salvador sends police, soldiers to patrol border, The Associated Press, September 12, 2019]
And, as reported near the top of this article, today an asylum agreement was signed with El Salvador.
Of course, any tightening of the borders in the Northern Triangle is in our interest.
* Yes, this Peak Stupidity blogger has officially come out as a homo ...
... nym-challenged individual.
** Note, I keep rounding everything to the conservative side. I could be off by 100% to the high side or 50% low, but it doesn't matter. Look at the result for a ballpark estimate.