Posted On: Tuesday - April 9th 2024 6:06AM MST
In Topics: Elections '16 - '24 Trump Economics Inflation Zhou Bai Dien
"Peak Oil" is a theory and phrase that has not been heard of much in the last 10 - 15 years. It IS the impetus for our site name and URL, Peak Stupidity, as the idea of "peak oil" was still more in internet pundit's and readers' memories when this site started.
I have a post in mind about the demise of the peak oil idea, but that's not what this post is. I'm talking peak oil prices and really only a local maximum is what I'm hoping for.
The image above is from a nearly 2 y/o post of ours, You didn't inflate that! We went through the argument that, no, Zhou Bai Dien wasn't a whole lot more responsible for the increasing price of gas than Trump and the Feral Gov't in general. It's not the gas, it's the Dollar.
As we noted at the bottom of 2 posts already here and here, 2 silver dimes will get you about a gallon of gas... as they did in 1964 when they could have been newly minted dimes. Gas is gas, and silver is silver, but fiat is funny money.
There have been the usual lefty stupid moves by Dark Brandon, killing pipeline projects, draining down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve*, working against Fossil Fuels** using the fairly new Climate Calamity™ excuse instead of just Peak Oil. (We've got to scrimp - we're running out!)
However, the public is not so wonky and knowledgable about these behind-the-scenes economic factors. When their big Lincoln Navigators and monster pick-ups take $150 to fill up, they start thinking very simply that "This President sucks!" That's true, he does, but they don't know the half of it. Anyway, though, as a follow-up to this past Friday's post Trump v Bai Dien and 2020s v 1980s, I'd just like to add one big hope and dream of mine.
I would really, really, like to see a local maximum, a Peak Oil Price, of $5 a gallon, nation-wide average, around, let's see, 6 months and 3 weeks from now. I want to see $150/bbl on November 4th, or some number that can beat 2,000 mules. Let's go, Brandon!
* In the short term, that may have kept prices slightly down, but there never was enough in there for this to be good long-term policy. I will add that Bai Dien (this is one thing that IS directly under the President's control legally) brought the reserves up very slightly, from 346 to 358 Billion barrels, since that post. (The data on this good site is 3 months old, so this is from end-o'-July '23 to end-o'-Jan '24.) In case you're interested, we wrote a lot about the SPR - more here - - here and here.
** That brings me to a video interview on Tucker Carlson's site, to be mentioned in the post on Peak Oil to come.
Comments:
Adam Smith
Tuesday - April 9th 2024 4:28PM MST
PS: There will always be coal...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JwoMf2f9FQ
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JwoMf2f9FQ
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The Alarmist
Tuesday - April 9th 2024 12:51PM MST
PS
The world hasn’t passed Peak Oil yet, but we are definitely well past Peak Cheap Oil. The energy cost of sourcing and extracting new oil is approching the point where oil will be priced out of being able to fuel our cheap-oil driven economy. That will be a much bigger problem than people being pissed about $150 fill-ups of their Hot Wheel toys, as it means the gears of the whole economy grind to a halt as everything becomes unaffordable, undeliverable, or, worst of all, unproducable.
BTW, the only reason fracked oil was able to be sold at “market rates” was because the first round or two or three of capital investment was wiped out in debt restructuring. The US is selling oil that costs $75 or more per barrel to produce in competition with Russia and KSA, who can lift it at $25 or less per barrel, and there Russia has the advantage over KSA because KSA needs $80 per barrel to support its government’s budget on its single viable industry, while Russia has a far more diverse and resilient economy. In that respect, Russia is in far better shape than the USA, and perhaps even energy-poor China.
The US has bigger problems than Bai Den, and replacing him will make no dent in its coming demise. But hey, at least we can have a laugh at those stickers as we slide toward the last of our affordable fill-ups.
The world hasn’t passed Peak Oil yet, but we are definitely well past Peak Cheap Oil. The energy cost of sourcing and extracting new oil is approching the point where oil will be priced out of being able to fuel our cheap-oil driven economy. That will be a much bigger problem than people being pissed about $150 fill-ups of their Hot Wheel toys, as it means the gears of the whole economy grind to a halt as everything becomes unaffordable, undeliverable, or, worst of all, unproducable.
BTW, the only reason fracked oil was able to be sold at “market rates” was because the first round or two or three of capital investment was wiped out in debt restructuring. The US is selling oil that costs $75 or more per barrel to produce in competition with Russia and KSA, who can lift it at $25 or less per barrel, and there Russia has the advantage over KSA because KSA needs $80 per barrel to support its government’s budget on its single viable industry, while Russia has a far more diverse and resilient economy. In that respect, Russia is in far better shape than the USA, and perhaps even energy-poor China.
The US has bigger problems than Bai Den, and replacing him will make no dent in its coming demise. But hey, at least we can have a laugh at those stickers as we slide toward the last of our affordable fill-ups.
MBlanc46
Tuesday - April 9th 2024 8:50AM MST
PS C’mon, man. I’m sure they think: Dang, I’ve got to get me one of them battery electric monster trucks.
The Peak Oil theory was based on biotic oil, as that idea of these hydrocarbons being Fossil Fuels was just a given, for me at least, for years. You simply run out, or it gets so prohibitively expensive to the point of diminishing returns. OTOH, if there is abiotic oil in pools we could never run out of, even if it's way the hell down there, well, we've got the energy to extract it. I guess if it takes 10 barrels just to extract 11, that's pretty wasteful (not to mention the CO2!), but engineers come up with some pretty clever stuff if you let them.
I worry more about our country becoming a Soviet Russia style economy, or that of Mao China, where good ideas go nowhere. That's where people like Bai Dien (his puppet-masters, to be more accurate) come into play. I do think it's important to get them and all the rest of the destructive people out of the Feral Gov't, or more like, the hell out of our country.
I'm not saying Mr. Trump will being oil down to where we can all driver big V-8s for cheap and that he can stave off the demise of the dollar. Even Ron Paul couldn't do that, even with a Congress full of Ron Pauls, at this point.