Posted On: Wednesday - July 3rd 2024 6:35PM MST
In Topics: Trump Pundits Media Stupidity US Feral Government Dead/Ex- Presidents Zhou Bai Dien
Anyone remember that guy? He didn't coin the phrase Trust, but verify, as it came from the Russian (in which it rhymes): Doveryay, no proveryay. However, it was the Russians, that is the Soviet Communists, who were the ones President Reagan famously referred to with this phrase, specifically regarding the numbers of nuclear missiles and warheads they said vs we verified they had. (There were no smart phones and internet ... 1984, 1987... it was a different time, you understand...)
I haven't seen this written anywhere, surprisingly, but the phrase "Trust, but verify" sardonically means "Don't trust." If you have to go back and verify, you never trusted to begin with. Reagan was smart not to have. It's too bad he didn't have the same attitude about the US Congress*.
Trust, but Verfiy is the title of Steve Sailer's latest Takimag article. Note the super-title too, a subtitle on top really, that says The Untold Story. This one is about conspiracy theories and "people" (not sure which exact segment/level he meant here) of the right being too enamored with them.
I gotta say, as of a week back, I've been miffed by this guy.
Peak Stupidity has written a lot about Mr. Sailer lately, now that he's "come out" (not gay, not Libertarian - heaven forbid!, but simply more visible and out of his literal closet). There have been his great book, his interview with the great Tucker Carlson, lots more interviews, appearances, and, I imagine, much more well-deserved income for him.
E.H. Hail has steered me to the new, or newly busy at least, SteveSailer substack-"powered" blog. The URL is simply stevesailer.net I've done some reading there.** Between a few articles there and most especially this latest Takimag article, I'm getting a little, I dare say, pissed. I haven't agreed on a number of basic points of his writing lately (including 2 or 3 posts on his site).
I'll have more detail (argumentation) later, but for now, I'll note that the series of posts Deep State, Peak State, and Shallow State - - The Biden Crisis: Deep State Theory vs. Peak State Theory, and Deep Cluster: How Influential Elites Actually Make Decisions all pushed his opinion that there is no real Deep State running American policy behind the scenes of at least the Executive Branch.*** I would disagree going well back 2, 3, 5? decades, but now with JoeMentia, I mean, come on, man! How COULD that guy be in charge, even if they let him? On that score, Mr. Sailer's been misled on at least this one thing, with no easy way to back out of his mistake.
The article in Takimag gets into conspiracy theories more generally. The question Mr. Sailer starts with has an obvious answer:
If the mainstream media won’t tell you the truth about the President’s age-driven mental decline until forced to spill the beans by a debate on live TV, can you trust them not to try to mislead you about other things as well?Right.
No, of course not.
Does that also mean that if they misdirect you about some facts, that therefore they are lying to you about anything and everything?No, of course not. You mean like what date the 4th of July falls on this year? No, of course not.
OK, I get it. They aren't all OUT TO lie. We've got to trust but verify, i.e., generally not trust them. We can figure out from many sources and our common sense when we are being lied to. However:
Part of the problem is that most people aren’t good at running reality checks on theories they hear.Steve Sailer is. However, he's gotten a big head, and he thinks this applies to everything. When it comes to his own particular niche studies - black crime, as one example brought up, yes, his common sense matches the data. He knows very well who in the media is lying about crime stats, racial and sex differences in abilities, sports, university admissions and SAT scores, the gays ... There's a lot more Steve Sailer is good at. This doesn't include every subject though, and there's a hell of a lot going on in the world.
Mr. Sailer brings up 5 conspiracy theories. As he does "basic reality checks on the theories mentioned above", I agree with him on 4 and the 5th is one I neither know nor care much about. These are the easy ones, and well, this debunking is a "no duh", but doesn't cover it all:
But nobody seems to care much about those questions, instead preferring to emphasize genuinely stupid theories such as that jetliners didn’t actually crash into the WTC.The "No Planes" theory is not the only area of doubt, and I don't think it's so very prevalent at all. Going back to before "But nobody..." there (sorry), Mr. Sailer agrees:
Well, 9/11 was a conspiracy, and like several other conspiracies, such as Lincoln’s assassination, it’s not clear just how high up the conspiracy went. Who knew within the Saudi regime? Who in Pakistan gave Osama refuge a mile from the Pakistani military academy?Sure, and who knew something like this was coming and wanted it to happen? (The "Patriot Act" was ready to go right out the box.)
One problem I have with all this is Mr. Sailer's particular picks of conspiracies to discuss here. Here's a good one that he adds:
An interesting aspect of this trend is that valid conspiracy theories are of little interest to the right these days. For example, as I reported in this column on Nov. 11, 2020, and confirmed on March 23, 2022, Trump’s Operation Warp Speed would likely have been announced a huge success on the day before the 2020 election, except that Pfizer shut down processing of its Covid vaccine clinical trial from late October until the day after the voting, which allowed the corporation to avoid Democratic enmity for helping Trump win reelection.Yes, as I wrote in the comments on his site a few times, that was a very good scoop. Of course, the Lyin' Press wasn't interested.
But the GOP rank and file has since proved, as Pfizer executives smartly anticipated in October 2020, too stupid to notice.Wasn't there something about a laptop computer found around this same time? The Lyin' Press covered that story too... with a pillow, until it was dead****. They'd have done the same with your story, Steve, but it didn't get far enough for them to need to.
Yeah, and what ABOUT that rank and file GOP? The MTG's and Matt Goetz's are not your rank and file GOP. I'm pretty sure they'd have been the ones touting your scoop to the rooftops. Yet, those are the types you deride harshly with your columns about lowbrow people of the right. Sure, MTG touted that nutty Jewish space lasers conspiracy theory - see America's deep divide and Large Marge expanded version - but as you can see in those and other videos Peak Stupidity has featured, she's onto the important conspiracy theories. She understands and calls out the UniParty for what it is. She is onto the Ukraine war scam. She explained directly why Congressmen act and vote like they do. She calls out CongroSomalians who work on behalf of foreign powers. She has done what (unfortunately little) she could do to expose the lying traitorous Alejandro Mayorkas. Oh, but those people aren't evil, no, just... they've not read Noticing, so they don't get it...
Those are the true and important conspiracies that Steve Sailer seems to want nothing to do with. It's a wild guess, but I'd put $1,000 on his not liking MTG one bit. (It's the least I can spare - I'm in LUV!... not with her body but with her patriotism.)
The problem is just that the imagined conspirators that have been taking this country down have not ever having read his columns or else things would all be very clear to them, and they'd quit doing that.
Instead, Republicans have decided that Trump’s immensely well-publicized plan to rush vaccines into service, which proved more or less successful, was actually a sinister plot to poison America. But of course, they also argue, Trump should therefore be reelected…because reasons.OK, now this is getting stupid. Your average Republican probably got the vax. Your average WISE Republican didn't and likely thinks like the Peak Stupidity crowd: This vaccine was not safe, it was not effective by definition, and that wouldn't be so bad if they hadn't tried to mandate we take it. It was pushed out there to calm the Panickers (like Steve Sailer, I must say), to make a lot of money for Pfizer, and so the Feral Gov't (yes, including dumbo Trump) could say they DID SOMETHING!
Guys like me can't believe Trump would be so stupid as to still keep bringing any of this Fall '20 "warp speed" stuff up. (Has he?) He did not arrange for the country to get invaded at warp speed though. As stupid as he can get
Unfortunately, an increasing number of people on the right are making these kinds of flying leaps into the lunatic fringe.Even if that hyperbole were all true, so what - let 'em fight, and let 'em WIN!
Steve Sailer: Trust, but Verify: "Trust"? Yes, he's an honest guy. "Verify"? I can verify that he has temporarily lost his way...
* More background.
** I've been meaning to write about this. I ALMOST signed up. It's not the money, it's the time - I will explain.
*** Bribery, blackmail, threats, etc., to influence the other 2 (or 3 if I count the Lyin' Press) branches are another subject. I don't think I'd agree with him there either.
**** That was coined by the "Iowahawk", Dave Burge.
Comments:
Moderator
Thursday - July 4th 2024 7:35PM MST
PS: I guess you'll have to sketch it out yourself, Mr. Hail. AI has failed the Peak Stupidity test. (I'm no kind of artiste, or I'd think about helping you out.)
No, those hyenas have no resemblance to Steve Sailer, that not being the idea anyway. Why the big SLR camera on the hardwood floor though. Maybe this particular AI is on acid.
I hope you all enjoy the rest of Independence Day and the rest of our independence.
No, those hyenas have no resemblance to Steve Sailer, that not being the idea anyway. Why the big SLR camera on the hardwood floor though. Maybe this particular AI is on acid.
I hope you all enjoy the rest of Independence Day and the rest of our independence.
Moderator
Thursday - July 4th 2024 7:31PM MST
PS: I read your comment over there, Mr. Hail. I haven't kept up in that much detail - not much at all really - but it's nice to hear that foreigner-in-residence Sunak will lose his PM seat. I guess that wasn't about his background particularly, just the way things work in their system when a party gets crushed.
Anyway, since I got over to stevesailer.net, I see he's got yet another post up trying to get people to not believe in any kind of Deep State behind the scenes of the Presidency. It's the gay Nurse Jill advisor. OK, fine. I get that he may give advice, etc., but that misses the big point. The Presidency itself is not in charge of the Administrative branch. It's not Dark Brandon himself who wants the invasion so badly, or Nurse Jill, or the gay caballaro. Same with the Ukraine war. There are other more powerful people who want certain things to get done.
I've got a post coming on this, which also will include one part of the interview with Tucker that I wanted to mention.
Anyway, since I got over to stevesailer.net, I see he's got yet another post up trying to get people to not believe in any kind of Deep State behind the scenes of the Presidency. It's the gay Nurse Jill advisor. OK, fine. I get that he may give advice, etc., but that misses the big point. The Presidency itself is not in charge of the Administrative branch. It's not Dark Brandon himself who wants the invasion so badly, or Nurse Jill, or the gay caballaro. Same with the Ukraine war. There are other more powerful people who want certain things to get done.
I've got a post coming on this, which also will include one part of the interview with Tucker that I wanted to mention.
Adam Smith
Thursday - July 4th 2024 11:23AM MST
PS: Good afternoon, Mr. Hail!
Re: "A gang of hyenas to the left berates a stunned Steve Sailer (standing in the center), shouting racism; Steve Sailer meanwhile turns towards his right and berates ordinary people for being so stupid and believing idiot conspiracies."
Well, apparently the ai artbot does not know what to do with that idea prompt. Here are the first two things hotpot drew for me...
https://i.ibb.co/3TD4Dcx/Sailer-4-Hail-01.png
https://i.ibb.co/yRNypQv/Sailer-4-Hail-02.png
Clearly, it doesn't know what to do with that.
So, I just gave it a simple prompt to work with.
"Steve Sailer"
https://i.ibb.co/VY894qd/Sailer-4-Hail-03.png
Well, apparently hotpot's artbot doesn't even know who he is.
I guess I'll have to get a little more creative.
Cheers! ☮️
Re: "A gang of hyenas to the left berates a stunned Steve Sailer (standing in the center), shouting racism; Steve Sailer meanwhile turns towards his right and berates ordinary people for being so stupid and believing idiot conspiracies."
Well, apparently the ai artbot does not know what to do with that idea prompt. Here are the first two things hotpot drew for me...
https://i.ibb.co/3TD4Dcx/Sailer-4-Hail-01.png
https://i.ibb.co/yRNypQv/Sailer-4-Hail-02.png
Clearly, it doesn't know what to do with that.
So, I just gave it a simple prompt to work with.
"Steve Sailer"
https://i.ibb.co/VY894qd/Sailer-4-Hail-03.png
Well, apparently hotpot's artbot doesn't even know who he is.
I guess I'll have to get a little more creative.
Cheers! ☮️
Hail
Thursday - July 4th 2024 7:21AM MST
PS
-- BRITISH ELECTION --
OT --- If you haven't been paying attention to the British election, today is the day. Initial projected results to be released some time after 5pm EDT, July 4th, 248 years to the day after the document that lost them North America.
There is an attempt underway to deliberately destroy their long-standing political party known informally as "the Tories," or the Conservative Party.
Of 650 seats in the British parliament, the Conservative Party could win as few as 50 or 60. Its voters have mostly bolted to the soft-ethnonationalist-oriented Reform Party of the UK, led by Nigel Farage, fully conscious that the vote-splitting will doom the 'Tory' party. That is the goal, of many. Only with the death of this party can Britain live.
This kind of passion I find absent from the post-2018-or-so 'MAGA' movement, which is mostly a pure personality-cult for Blumpf which cares more about him, about one man, than about ideas or policies. He can get away with anything and talk himself out of it (see, e.g., the lockdowns and vaccine "rollout").
See:
https://www.stevesailer.net/p/the-killing-season/comment/60932105
-- BRITISH ELECTION --
OT --- If you haven't been paying attention to the British election, today is the day. Initial projected results to be released some time after 5pm EDT, July 4th, 248 years to the day after the document that lost them North America.
There is an attempt underway to deliberately destroy their long-standing political party known informally as "the Tories," or the Conservative Party.
Of 650 seats in the British parliament, the Conservative Party could win as few as 50 or 60. Its voters have mostly bolted to the soft-ethnonationalist-oriented Reform Party of the UK, led by Nigel Farage, fully conscious that the vote-splitting will doom the 'Tory' party. That is the goal, of many. Only with the death of this party can Britain live.
This kind of passion I find absent from the post-2018-or-so 'MAGA' movement, which is mostly a pure personality-cult for Blumpf which cares more about him, about one man, than about ideas or policies. He can get away with anything and talk himself out of it (see, e.g., the lockdowns and vaccine "rollout").
See:
https://www.stevesailer.net/p/the-killing-season/comment/60932105
Hail
Thursday - July 4th 2024 6:40AM MST
PS
"AT art" idea for A. Smith to try to get, if he can:
A gang of hyenas to the left berates a stunned Steve Sailer (standing in the center), shouting racism; Steve Sailer meanwhile turns towards his right and berates ordinary people for being so stupid and believing idiot conspiracies.
"AT art" idea for A. Smith to try to get, if he can:
A gang of hyenas to the left berates a stunned Steve Sailer (standing in the center), shouting racism; Steve Sailer meanwhile turns towards his right and berates ordinary people for being so stupid and believing idiot conspiracies.
Moderator
Thursday - July 4th 2024 5:36AM MST
PS: I remember you worried about the perils of success, Mr. Hail. Yes, I think what you wrote here is what's going on with Mr. Sailer. I also wrote before the Tucker interview, that just based on his great book sales and tours and what-not, he may have wanted to distance himself from anyone who could be called "the crazies" or "far right". (You know like 35% of the population of France or something is far right?)
It'd be bad timing for him if some big media outlet gave him a bunch of coverage right at the time someone, or that outlet itself, found some "juicy" reply comment of Mr. Sailer's back to some "juicy" comment by perfectly reasonable people like AnotherDad or Hypnotoad or Hail or Nick Styx about racial issues. I could be something else even, but I think so racial remark that he seemed to agree with would be all his enemies would be looking for.
He has been distancing himself from unz.com, IMO. His VDare articles are ones that go to TUR, but then his own site has stuff that appears in neither of those 2 sites. - I'll have to confirm this. I never noticed this before, but his short bio on Takimag mentions Mr. Sailer writes for VDare but also avoids any mention of TUR. Unz is pretty radioactive, I guess.
I remember your quitting and then your coming back, to iSteve.
See that recent post about Lionel Shriver? That's kind of how I felt upon reading that last novel "Mania", but it wasn't as big an issue. Nobody expects a writer living in NYC and London (now Lisbon, Portugal) to be "with us", but she really had promise.
Finally, regarding stevesailer.net, yes I see you on there. I did try to make one comment, but when it wanted a real email, I just said no™. Not the money, not really the anonymity (could have got a special protonmail acct.), but just "here I go again"™, taking more of my day, that is.
Then, after seeing those 3 articles that I don't agree with, it made my decision even better in hindsight.
One more thing: There's nothing, nothing out there, to match the great usability of TUR commenting, IMO.
Anyway, this last part about iSteve's substack site was to be in another post - later this week or next week.
It'd be bad timing for him if some big media outlet gave him a bunch of coverage right at the time someone, or that outlet itself, found some "juicy" reply comment of Mr. Sailer's back to some "juicy" comment by perfectly reasonable people like AnotherDad or Hypnotoad or Hail or Nick Styx about racial issues. I could be something else even, but I think so racial remark that he seemed to agree with would be all his enemies would be looking for.
He has been distancing himself from unz.com, IMO. His VDare articles are ones that go to TUR, but then his own site has stuff that appears in neither of those 2 sites. - I'll have to confirm this. I never noticed this before, but his short bio on Takimag mentions Mr. Sailer writes for VDare but also avoids any mention of TUR. Unz is pretty radioactive, I guess.
I remember your quitting and then your coming back, to iSteve.
See that recent post about Lionel Shriver? That's kind of how I felt upon reading that last novel "Mania", but it wasn't as big an issue. Nobody expects a writer living in NYC and London (now Lisbon, Portugal) to be "with us", but she really had promise.
Finally, regarding stevesailer.net, yes I see you on there. I did try to make one comment, but when it wanted a real email, I just said no™. Not the money, not really the anonymity (could have got a special protonmail acct.), but just "here I go again"™, taking more of my day, that is.
Then, after seeing those 3 articles that I don't agree with, it made my decision even better in hindsight.
One more thing: There's nothing, nothing out there, to match the great usability of TUR commenting, IMO.
Anyway, this last part about iSteve's substack site was to be in another post - later this week or next week.
Hail
Wednesday - July 3rd 2024 8:24PM MST
PS
I share your views, in general, on this.
In highlighting the Dennis Dale essay of a few weeks ago, I feel like I was prescient. I titled that post: "The Perils of Success." In other words, ever since his book deal (in place by about spring 2023), he is leaning more towards safe or even anodyne positions.
He is using a lot of strawmen than he has in years past. The idea is to say "I am not like those bad people."
I (still) get the feeling that spring 2020 was the big single turning-point in Steve Sailer's career as a commentator. At that time, he and his own core fan-base turned on one another to an extent, and have never reconciled. Steve Sailer seems, still today, genuinely convinced of the core narratives of what I like to call "the Corona-Panic," as we even see in the latest Taki essay, the lines about the vaccines.
I was a Steve Sailer reader, off and on but with stretches of following almost everything he wrote and the wider "Sailersphere" of commenters and associated blogs (of which Peak Stupidity is one, let no one deny it), for around fifteen years. Not to go overboard, but Steve Sailer is almost a kind of intellectual hero to me. I was so angry and disillusioned by his stance on the Corona-Panic that I quit, though my recollection at the time was that I was angrier at the fatheaded Panic-to-the-bitter-end people like HA, and a few others. This was the biggest "missed class" of this century, and there were smart men clinging to it; why?
Anyway, sickened by the whole thing (though not with any corona-virus), I quit commenting and stayed away for three years. The good thing about the rise of SteveSailer.net is it feels like a fresh start.
I share your views, in general, on this.
In highlighting the Dennis Dale essay of a few weeks ago, I feel like I was prescient. I titled that post: "The Perils of Success." In other words, ever since his book deal (in place by about spring 2023), he is leaning more towards safe or even anodyne positions.
He is using a lot of strawmen than he has in years past. The idea is to say "I am not like those bad people."
I (still) get the feeling that spring 2020 was the big single turning-point in Steve Sailer's career as a commentator. At that time, he and his own core fan-base turned on one another to an extent, and have never reconciled. Steve Sailer seems, still today, genuinely convinced of the core narratives of what I like to call "the Corona-Panic," as we even see in the latest Taki essay, the lines about the vaccines.
I was a Steve Sailer reader, off and on but with stretches of following almost everything he wrote and the wider "Sailersphere" of commenters and associated blogs (of which Peak Stupidity is one, let no one deny it), for around fifteen years. Not to go overboard, but Steve Sailer is almost a kind of intellectual hero to me. I was so angry and disillusioned by his stance on the Corona-Panic that I quit, though my recollection at the time was that I was angrier at the fatheaded Panic-to-the-bitter-end people like HA, and a few others. This was the biggest "missed class" of this century, and there were smart men clinging to it; why?
Anyway, sickened by the whole thing (though not with any corona-virus), I quit commenting and stayed away for three years. The good thing about the rise of SteveSailer.net is it feels like a fresh start.
𝑊ℎ𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑔 𝑆𝐿𝑅 𝑐𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑎 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑤𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑔ℎ.
𝑀𝑎𝑦𝑏𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝐴𝐼 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑑.
Yeah. I've never seen the ArtBot return a photo of a camera like that until yesterday. Weird. I tried the "Steve Sailer" prompt a few more times...
https://i.ibb.co/C5XJnQC/Sailer-4-Hail-04.png
https://i.ibb.co/Ns35MX1/Sailer-4-Hail-05.png
https://i.ibb.co/nzyhkm0/Sailer-4-Hail-06.png
Then I tried some other ai art generator thingy...
https://i.ibb.co/x76s1SK/Sailer-4-Hail-07.jpg
Still disappointing. ☮️