Posted On: Wednesday - August 6th 2025 6:33PM MST
In Topics: Immigration Stupidity Trump Zhou Bai Dien
(Title borrowed from Steve Sailer's "World's most important graph" (most scary, too) which was shows leveling and falling populations in the world except a big rise toward 4 Billion in Sub-Saharan Africa.)
I'm gonna keep it fairly short this time. The graph doesn't quite "say it all", as they say, but it's actually way on the conservative side, numbers-wise. I got this off a ZeroHedge article yesterday, Border Encounters, Apprehensions Hit Record Low In July: Homeland Security. We've been apprehensive for 20-30 years about the PRP/Immigration Invasion, but that's not what they mean by that. VDare writers could have explained it better, but an "apprehension" has something to do with being detained, captured, or arrested, while an "encounter" sounds to be more like a sighting or an unplanned meeting.
How many of the "encountees" end up in the US? Why are apprehensions so much lower? Again, I wish VDare was in business, as I'd refer the reader to the experts.
Due to the differences between these numbers and the graph saying "encounters" while it looks like apprehension numbers, I'll paste in text from the ZH article:
There were 24,630 nationwide encounters with illegal immigrants in July, the lowest on record, down 2.4 percent from June and nearly 90 percent lower than the monthly average under the previous administration, the agency said on Aug. 1.
Border Patrol apprehensions hit 6,177 individuals in July, breaking June’s all-time low.
Enjoy:
Just as with numbers for arrests of criminals generally, we don't know how many people get away with it. In the case of this crimes of Illegal Entry Into a Nation, encounters and apprehensions are going to be lower than the total entries. The idea, though, is that they may be proportional, so these numbers are indicative of how many are TRYING.
During the arranged invasion for the 4 years of the Bai Dien Administration, because the Border Patrol was ordered to perform babysitting duties rather than border control, these numbers were much less a proportion of total entries. Not only that, but with the asylum apps that foreigners from all over the world could use to come in on "parole" (seen this paperwork in person and seen the guys using it), millions would not be part of either the apprehension of encounter numbers - they were legal to come in, get a plane ticket - through the TSA with that piece of paper, and get their free shit.
So, Trump has done a MUCH better job than even this graph indicates. Numbers aside, his making the effort to actually control the border makes the President the best one Americans have seen on this issue* since Eisenhower. It's BEEN a while!
Peak Stupidity will take the time to call out the stupidity of President Trump as we see it. However, when it comes to Job One, at least* this portion of the effort, we praise him highly. Here's something the guy SHOULD actually brag about - I'm sure he does!
* That is, the illegal side of things, and only the borders, meaning not counting the large numbers of visa overstayer illegal aliens. Then, there is the LEGAL side - Trump has been clueless and stupid on the subject, but I think he's been learning a bit.
Comments:
Moderator
Thursday - August 7th 2025 9:09AM MST
PS: Adam, yes, I, but more importantly, lots of people like John Williams and his
https://shadowstats.com
have been showing this for decades.
Trump can't be expected to follow all the news, but I remember that ZeroHedge had posts about this highly erroneous "print" (in finance parlance) and the huge correction that brought job gains from +800,000 to either a couple of 10's of thousands or negative, as I recall. There had been an instance before that.
It does seem every Banana Republican, and, yeah, Chinese, to have the President fire the messenger, but yeah, I see the same tricks that he does wrt the BLS.
OTOH, when it comes to inflation numbers, will Trump fire someone at the BLS for that too? Inflation is not gonna just end.
https://shadowstats.com
have been showing this for decades.
Trump can't be expected to follow all the news, but I remember that ZeroHedge had posts about this highly erroneous "print" (in finance parlance) and the huge correction that brought job gains from +800,000 to either a couple of 10's of thousands or negative, as I recall. There had been an instance before that.
It does seem every Banana Republican, and, yeah, Chinese, to have the President fire the messenger, but yeah, I see the same tricks that he does wrt the BLS.
OTOH, when it comes to inflation numbers, will Trump fire someone at the BLS for that too? Inflation is not gonna just end.
Moderator
Thursday - August 7th 2025 9:05AM MST
PS: Mr. Hail, hello again.
On your (1): Yes, I know that Trump places a lot of importance on himself, America, and Americans, not being scammed. He hates that because he's been a businessman in NYC, so I'm sure he's seen a lot.
That's all good, and it can often be to our favor. "The H1B visa program is basically Indentured Servitude, Sir." Give him more details and he might get pissed enough. "Gotta stop H1B visa scam!" - Real Donald Trump on Truth Social.)
Does he not care about the general cultural destruction that would come from even all legal-eagle no scamming immigration of a million, 2 million a year? That's what it's been, though I will say that there are scams involved in almost every type of entry visa.
"The snake-oil-selling Based-Brown-Guy Vivek Ramaswamy took his anti-Wokeness powerpoint-show and decamped for Ohio to run for governor." Thank you so very much, ratifiers of Amendment XVII. (The whole Amendment sequence has been a terrible, terrible deal - I've gone through them all, that is starting with XI, on this blog, as you probably know.)
On your (2): I just read that Trump has a goal of 1 million deporations annually. No, out of 50 million here, and then offspring, this doesn't work. I think he liked the nice very-round number. I'd want to see 2-4 million, but I do keep repeating that if you have a serious, steady, and continually publicized program, there will be much self-deportation. You can encourage that, but, no, I don't like the "give them money" deal. Not unless the borders and ALL entry ways are rock solid.
On your (1): Yes, I know that Trump places a lot of importance on himself, America, and Americans, not being scammed. He hates that because he's been a businessman in NYC, so I'm sure he's seen a lot.
That's all good, and it can often be to our favor. "The H1B visa program is basically Indentured Servitude, Sir." Give him more details and he might get pissed enough. "Gotta stop H1B visa scam!" - Real Donald Trump on Truth Social.)
Does he not care about the general cultural destruction that would come from even all legal-eagle no scamming immigration of a million, 2 million a year? That's what it's been, though I will say that there are scams involved in almost every type of entry visa.
"The snake-oil-selling Based-Brown-Guy Vivek Ramaswamy took his anti-Wokeness powerpoint-show and decamped for Ohio to run for governor." Thank you so very much, ratifiers of Amendment XVII. (The whole Amendment sequence has been a terrible, terrible deal - I've gone through them all, that is starting with XI, on this blog, as you probably know.)
On your (2): I just read that Trump has a goal of 1 million deporations annually. No, out of 50 million here, and then offspring, this doesn't work. I think he liked the nice very-round number. I'd want to see 2-4 million, but I do keep repeating that if you have a serious, steady, and continually publicized program, there will be much self-deportation. You can encourage that, but, no, I don't like the "give them money" deal. Not unless the borders and ALL entry ways are rock solid.
Moderator
Thursday - August 7th 2025 8:56AM MST
PS: ""If true," that is. Unfortunately, with these people, we have to ask if there may be pressure to report lower numbers than may be merited, in the way some Big-Blue cities have been caught cutting corners to under-report crime. Maybe not."
That's possible. However, Trump is NOT a numbers guy. He likes to brag, of course, once he's even AWARE of a graph like this or whatever results. I just don't see him as the details guy who wants to push a bit to get the numbers to some certain level. He has give the BP/ICE free reign to do what they were supposed to be doing all along, rather than be babysitters and travel agents.
Regarding your last paragraph in this 1st comment, I agree. China has been the primo example of the latter.
Now, I'll get to the firing of the BLS lady shortly.
That's possible. However, Trump is NOT a numbers guy. He likes to brag, of course, once he's even AWARE of a graph like this or whatever results. I just don't see him as the details guy who wants to push a bit to get the numbers to some certain level. He has give the BP/ICE free reign to do what they were supposed to be doing all along, rather than be babysitters and travel agents.
Regarding your last paragraph in this 1st comment, I agree. China has been the primo example of the latter.
Now, I'll get to the firing of the BLS lady shortly.
M
Thursday - August 7th 2025 4:08AM MST
PS
There's three numbers for border crossing:
- Attempt, caught.
- Border crossing, detected at some point but not caught.
- Border crossing, not even seen.
The number won't include the third case of course. Does it include the second?
Hail:
From what I've read, the agency head was fired after *many years* of the agency releasing numbers to great publicity and then (always) revising them later.
They were worse than the newspapers for "correcting" stories. And always in a way that put the politicians of a certain party in a favorable light.
Maybe they should do the numbers right the first time?
There's three numbers for border crossing:
- Attempt, caught.
- Border crossing, detected at some point but not caught.
- Border crossing, not even seen.
The number won't include the third case of course. Does it include the second?
Hail:
From what I've read, the agency head was fired after *many years* of the agency releasing numbers to great publicity and then (always) revising them later.
They were worse than the newspapers for "correcting" stories. And always in a way that put the politicians of a certain party in a favorable light.
Maybe they should do the numbers right the first time?
Adam Smith
Wednesday - August 6th 2025 10:58PM MST
PS: Good evening, Messrs. Hail & Moderator!
A video from a slow reply comment four posts back...
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1952064920805158912/vid/avc1/1280x720/q8FQ8lx1CpLRgy3M.mp4
If it's real. I mean, they have been fudging the numbers for inflation and employment (amongst others, no doubt) for quite some time. So who really knows...
But, assuming it's real, it is encouraging.
☮️
A video from a slow reply comment four posts back...
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1952064920805158912/vid/avc1/1280x720/q8FQ8lx1CpLRgy3M.mp4
If it's real. I mean, they have been fudging the numbers for inflation and employment (amongst others, no doubt) for quite some time. So who really knows...
But, assuming it's real, it is encouraging.
☮️
Hail
Wednesday - August 6th 2025 8:15PM MST
PS
quote from the entry: "When it comes to Job One, at least this portion of the effort, we praise him highly."
The phrase "this portion of the effort" is a nod to the fact that the important metric is not "manner in which a non-Western foreigner enters the USA."
(1.) The important metric is "total flow by all methods."
Some anti-Trump Rightist some time ago quipped that with Trump-II, it was looking like the USA would "trade illegal migrants for legal migrants."
Not much talk has continued, since the storm died down, about the proposed huge increase of the H1B limit, for example, but plenty of evidence of visas still easily handed out, despite some made-for-tv theatrics here and there. (The snake-oil-selling Based-Brown-Guy Vivek Ramaswamy took his anti-Wokeness powerpoint-show and decamped for Ohio to run for governor. An absurdity, that the man would be governor of any US state; an affront to the dignity of the USA and its people, really, that an obvious con-man so easily rode to success and fame in this way).
(2.) And just as important as "total flow" (nominally illegal plus nominally legal, all visa methods), is "total stock."
A "stock" that remains bloated, with a recent-foreigner figure (all statuses) in the tens of millions, is a waiting springboard for, at some future date, a legalization coup-de-grace and tens of millions more future chain-migrants. It's a ticking time-bomb, if they don't go back.
Given Trump's track record, that "future date" could even come in the Trump-II administration itself.
We have, I believe, heard from him more hints of "executive-order" legalization-maneuvers than firm commitment against them. The exemption from deportation for "all farm workers" is one early example of what the unprincipled Man in Orange is thinking. He wants migrants who feed his narcissistic self-image.
quote from the entry: "When it comes to Job One, at least this portion of the effort, we praise him highly."
The phrase "this portion of the effort" is a nod to the fact that the important metric is not "manner in which a non-Western foreigner enters the USA."
(1.) The important metric is "total flow by all methods."
Some anti-Trump Rightist some time ago quipped that with Trump-II, it was looking like the USA would "trade illegal migrants for legal migrants."
Not much talk has continued, since the storm died down, about the proposed huge increase of the H1B limit, for example, but plenty of evidence of visas still easily handed out, despite some made-for-tv theatrics here and there. (The snake-oil-selling Based-Brown-Guy Vivek Ramaswamy took his anti-Wokeness powerpoint-show and decamped for Ohio to run for governor. An absurdity, that the man would be governor of any US state; an affront to the dignity of the USA and its people, really, that an obvious con-man so easily rode to success and fame in this way).
(2.) And just as important as "total flow" (nominally illegal plus nominally legal, all visa methods), is "total stock."
A "stock" that remains bloated, with a recent-foreigner figure (all statuses) in the tens of millions, is a waiting springboard for, at some future date, a legalization coup-de-grace and tens of millions more future chain-migrants. It's a ticking time-bomb, if they don't go back.
Given Trump's track record, that "future date" could even come in the Trump-II administration itself.
We have, I believe, heard from him more hints of "executive-order" legalization-maneuvers than firm commitment against them. The exemption from deportation for "all farm workers" is one early example of what the unprincipled Man in Orange is thinking. He wants migrants who feed his narcissistic self-image.
Hail
Wednesday - August 6th 2025 8:11PM MST
PS
I agree it is a very good thing that illegal border-crossings are down to minimal levels, where they should be for any rational country in normal times.
"If true," that is. Unfortunately, with these people, we have to ask if there may be pressure to report lower numbers than may be merited, in the way some Big-Blue cities have been caught cutting corners to under-report crime. Maybe not. But this IS a rule-by-decree president who, this week, has fired his jobs-statistics-tracking agency head over a bad report, a move certain to undermine faith in those numbers in future. I wouldn't put it past these people to have finessed the border-numbers lower a bit.
The West generally, and the USA specifically -- with our NW-European tradition of fanatical commitment to the truth on a kind of spiritual-like, religion-like impulse -- have never faked data or statistics on an industrial scale, like some countries (without those truth-before-face traditions) have done, or are generally suspected of doing.
I agree it is a very good thing that illegal border-crossings are down to minimal levels, where they should be for any rational country in normal times.
"If true," that is. Unfortunately, with these people, we have to ask if there may be pressure to report lower numbers than may be merited, in the way some Big-Blue cities have been caught cutting corners to under-report crime. Maybe not. But this IS a rule-by-decree president who, this week, has fired his jobs-statistics-tracking agency head over a bad report, a move certain to undermine faith in those numbers in future. I wouldn't put it past these people to have finessed the border-numbers lower a bit.
The West generally, and the USA specifically -- with our NW-European tradition of fanatical commitment to the truth on a kind of spiritual-like, religion-like impulse -- have never faked data or statistics on an industrial scale, like some countries (without those truth-before-face traditions) have done, or are generally suspected of doing.
Regarding your question, I'd think the #2 would surely be part of the "Encounters" count. Apprehensions won't.