Posted On: Monday - May 18th 2026 7:31AM MST
In Topics: Elections '16 - '26 Trump alt-right/MAGA
There's an important GOP Primary election tomorrow. It's more important than the general election for US Representative of Kentucky's 4th District for a number of reasons, the simplest being that a Republican will win that either way, unless he's a complete whack-job. Here are the demographics of the 4th District from '23:
86.6% WhiteThese numbers are important too, as we saw with Marjorie Taylor Greene in her Georgia 14th vs AOC's NY 14th and explained in MTG v AOC.
4.2% Hispanic
4.1% Two or more races
3.4% Black
1.1% Asian
0.5% other
68.2% urbanThat's surprising when you look at a map of KY-4th. It's not nearly as gerrymandered as you'll see a lot. The district sits south of the eastern portion of Kentucky's Ohio River border with Ohio. It doesn't include quite to Ashland* (over by West Virginia), and it stretches to the eastern suburbs of Louisville. It includes the Kentucky suburbs of Cincinnati (not that much there, really), and doesn't include Lexington. "Urban" must include exurbs here.
31.8% rural
The incumbent Thomas Massie is running against a guy whose name I don't even care to look up, because who he is, is not the big point in this election. Thomas Massie is really running against Donald Trump. Not to attempt to sound like Karl Marx here, but this election is both a political and personal struggle.
Here's the political struggle, although the two are intertwined. Both of these men are MAGA, or were, I should say, before Trump went off the plan to put America into a fight for Israel. Contrary to what this Swati Mishra (from I don't know where) says below the photo, Rep. Massie's stance on the immigration invasion has been very good. Like MTG, Thomas Massie differs with Trump on American non-defensive wars, such as in the Ukraine (support $ only) and now Iran.
Trump did not escalate support for the Ukraine war at least, so I don't think a big rift between the two men started there. Because Thomas Massie is a principled man, and Donald Trump is not, the former did not support Mr. Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" for eventual financial SHTF reasons. That was a big deal to Trump. I see both sides on this one.
Trump has been criticized, including right here on this blog, for implementing policies on Job #1 via executive action only. As Trump-45 he DID make some good strides - lower illegal numbers, a gradual, but still drastic, cut in "refugee" numbers, etc. - against the PRP, but as we all wrote, as soon as the next guy gets in, on Day 1 it all goes away. That was indeed the case, and even WE didn't expect it to get to the destructive level it did under Dark Brandon.
It's been the same for Trump-47, so what do you do? As Reagan did, you compromise with the D's to get bills passed, and that BBB did include a WHOLE LOT ($150 Billion) of money for Job #. So, you don't worry about the hundreds of Billions of waste/pork spread around. (Not only that, but I don't think Trump really understands the financial problem anyway.) Trump wanted at least all the Republicans to vote for it, and Massie was a hold out.
Oh, and then, BTW, just as with Reagan, a D compromise actually means a stalling move, as in the case of the BBB, they proceeded with the Schumer Shutdown last Fall to block the anti-PRP part of the budget anyway. Trump only got out of it with his great skills at publicity.
Who was right, the principled Conservative or the "Art of the Deal" guy? I don't know. I can see why President Trump held this against Thomas Massie. Thomas Massie was voting on principle, and I would think the voters in Kentucky District 4 appreciate that. However, now, with criticism of the Iran War, the rift is deeper between Trump and the principled Conservatives.
Going back to the problem with only Executive action on Job # 1, what else do you do besides "compromise' with the traitorous liars of the D-party? Here's what: You try to form coalitions in Congress. Part of that is thinking ahead and getting not GOPe, Inc. types, but real MAGA Conservatives in office for the next big votes. Trump really has an advantage versus Ronald Reagan 4 decades ago, in that Trump has a very loyal active base that will come out and support whom Trump says to support.
We saw this in Indiana with redistricting. For those who still complain about "put it into the law", well this is how you go about this strategically. The redistricting decision is part of this, as decided by a Supreme Court that didn't "go native", not even the worthless John Roberts (he probably saw no point on this one, as he wouldn't be the deciding vote). Trump appointed three of them, maybe giving a slight 2-man advantage over prior SCrOTAE. I am glad to see some strategerizing going on.
Or is some of it not strategy, but just plain Trump's vindictiveness? One of the Indiana reps ousted had voted to impeach Trump at the end of his last term, something involving January 6th insurrections or nonsense like that. Revenge is a dish best served cold, but it helps if you can put in another MAGA guy while you're at it.
This vindictiveness of Trump's may be put to better use in prosecuting the jailers of the J-6ers and the perpetrators of the '20 election cheat-fest. I'd love to see Alley-Hondro Mayorkas be thrown in prison, along with Soros & Singham and others. Instead, here we have a principled Immigration Patriot MAGA Conservative who wasn't going to be simple yes-man for Donald Trump as the target of a primary challenge due to this nasty trait. (It reminds me of Trump's stupidity regarding Jeff Sessions. After Sessions was removed from the A/G position, Trump STILL worked against this A+ Immigration Patriot in the Alabama Senate primary - pure vindictiveness.)
Then, we read, from the this UK Guardian article (thanks, Mr. Anon):
He [Trump, but I you'd have known] has branded Massie a “lowlife”, “moron” and “weak and pathetic”, and even mocked him for remarrying 16 months after the sudden death of his wife of more than 30 years. He told a rally in the district in March: “We’ve got to get rid of this loser. This guy is bad. He’s disloyal to the Republican party. He’s disloyal to the people of Kentucky, and most importantly, he is disloyal to the United States of America. And he’s got to be voted out of office as soon as possible.”Is that "trash talk" or "smack talk", I don't know? It takes a whole lot of hypocrisy too for Trump to talk about Thomas Massie's personal life.
Here's what principled is (also from the Guardian article):
But Massie’s rigid ideological commitment could hurt him at the ballot box. Early in his career, Massie refused to help his constituents access federal programs that he opposed, a hardline stance that permanently alienated local business leaders and officials.[My bolding.] Now, THAT'S principled. Donald Trump couldn't wrap his mind around that. AND, Thomas Massie is a big off-the-grid prepper too!
Tres Watson, a Republican political strategist and host of Kentucky Politics Weekly podcast, said: “It’s not entirely a Trump-Massie battle. There’s probably 30% of the district inclined to vote against Massie because of the way he handles his district office. When he first came into office, he basically said, if I don’t agree with the program , I’m not going to help my constituents access it.
There's also Trump's ego that's involved. You can't be just a supporter of the (original) MAGA goals, apparently. You must be down with everything Trump wants. That's the big battle here, as this election for the GOP nomination in the 4th Congressional District of Kentucky has become a nationwide referendum: Does being MAGA mean you must follow Trump?
I vote no, but then I don't live in the district. I can only hope for a Thomas Massie win. Lots of money has been pouring in from both sides. We'll see tomorrow night how the people of the this one Congressional district think about this question.
* The map on wiki was not so clear, so I went to bing co-pilot, and even it had to crunch hard to get this simple Geographical answer.
Comments:
Hail
Tuesday - May 19th 2026 6:37PM MST
PS
The low-info voters and Big Israel money win again!
The low-info voters and Big Israel money win again!
Adam Smith
Tuesday - May 19th 2026 12:14PM MST
PS: Good afternoon, everyone!
https://i.ibb.co/0Vnj071X/the-jews-fear-Thomas-Massie.jpg
Now that Marjorie was forced out of congress*, Massie is one of the only good ones left. (And...) I think it is really weird that the parasite class keeps referring to Marjorie and Massie as traitors for their stance on the release of Epstein's files and their opposition to The War for Greater Israel.
*You'd think a congress critter being forced out of office by death threats would be a bigger story.
Strange indeed.
Happy Tuesday! ☮️
https://i.ibb.co/0Vnj071X/the-jews-fear-Thomas-Massie.jpg
Now that Marjorie was forced out of congress*, Massie is one of the only good ones left. (And...) I think it is really weird that the parasite class keeps referring to Marjorie and Massie as traitors for their stance on the release of Epstein's files and their opposition to The War for Greater Israel.
*You'd think a congress critter being forced out of office by death threats would be a bigger story.
Strange indeed.
Happy Tuesday! ☮️
Moderator
Tuesday - May 19th 2026 10:42AM MST
PS: Regarding Steven Miller being in the limelight rather than that guy behind the scenes that you read about in history books, it's a different era, Mr. Hail. I guess none of these people can resist Anti-Social Media any more than the next guy, or even less so. It's probably intoxicating to them to come out with some statement, say right out of the White House, that half a million people "LIKE" that day.
Trump DOES need a manager, and I still think Miller is the right guy when it comes to Immigration Patriotism. If he did influence Trump on the Iran War, well, not only do we not need that, but it may be the downfall of Steven Miller if Trump can blame his decision on "stupid advisors" and tweet about that for the next couple of years. He's gonna have to blame somebody somewhere ...
Disregard my 2nd * footnote in the last comment.
Trump DOES need a manager, and I still think Miller is the right guy when it comes to Immigration Patriotism. If he did influence Trump on the Iran War, well, not only do we not need that, but it may be the downfall of Steven Miller if Trump can blame his decision on "stupid advisors" and tweet about that for the next couple of years. He's gonna have to blame somebody somewhere ...
Disregard my 2nd * footnote in the last comment.
Moderator
Tuesday - May 19th 2026 10:36AM MST
PS: "The Fox News crowd is going hard against Massie. They are calling him a puppet of the Democrats and un-American. Fox hosts across the board, it seems, are urging Kentuckians to vote for the other guy."
Some of the criticisms of Massie, such as his voting against the BBB, are ones I can fathom. I can see both sides of this quandary, try to get things DONE, as Trump has on Job #1, vs. pure principle.* I may put that criticism of the Ann Coulter column you linked us to on iSteve in a separate post here.
However, this vilification of Rep. Massie shows where the other side is coming from. This is war to them. They can't have anyone standing up right in front of them against the Iran War and some of the madness out of Donald Trump.
I guess we'll find out tonight how well the big money works. After all, the money doesn't directly vote - the people do. I've got a post coming about this too.
* ... along with, sure, the financial crisis will just come sooner, but this is musical chairs, and I don't blame Trump for not being that last one standing.
* Though, as Ann Coulter noted in her post you linked to on TUR,
Some of the criticisms of Massie, such as his voting against the BBB, are ones I can fathom. I can see both sides of this quandary, try to get things DONE, as Trump has on Job #1, vs. pure principle.* I may put that criticism of the Ann Coulter column you linked us to on iSteve in a separate post here.
However, this vilification of Rep. Massie shows where the other side is coming from. This is war to them. They can't have anyone standing up right in front of them against the Iran War and some of the madness out of Donald Trump.
I guess we'll find out tonight how well the big money works. After all, the money doesn't directly vote - the people do. I've got a post coming about this too.
* ... along with, sure, the financial crisis will just come sooner, but this is musical chairs, and I don't blame Trump for not being that last one standing.
* Though, as Ann Coulter noted in her post you linked to on TUR,
Hail
Tuesday - May 19th 2026 8:31AM MST
PS
The Fox News crowd is going hard against Massie. They are calling him a puppet of the Democrats and un-American. Fox hosts across the board, it seems, are urging Kentuckians to vote for the other guy.
A few people on social media of some note are saying Massie must be defeated because he blocked the "Big Beautiful Bill"; and has a C+ score this term from NumbersUSA on immigration restriction; or other over-narrow issues like that. (The Trump people appointed Markwayne Mullin head of the Dept of Homeland Security, and Mullin himself had a C+ immigration-grade!)
These anti-Massie bandwagoneers are often social-media "hype" people who have some sort of recognizable name but aren't real principled people. They're often "selling something," especially their own images.
The long-standing, known-quantity principled men and women, like Steve Sailer and Ann Coulter (both endorsed Massie), aren't doing that kind of thing.
It was surprising to see Sailer endorse Massie (all but officially) because of how avoidant of politics he's been lately and how he says he never makes endorsements. But he did here.
_______
Stephen Miller came out in his usual style demanding the people of northern Kentucky defeat Massie and send Massie packing to some nether-region to never hear from him again. We can assume it's the "Israel thing," combined with (I'd suggest) Miller having fused his own ego with Trump's.
A funny thing about Stephen Miller, and one reason why I'm uncomfortable with him: there have been plenty of people in roles like his, in every presidency, but all but among the public no one but a few extreme inside-baseball politics-followers ever heard their names or heard from them. It wouldn't have been appropriate, these previous people in comparable positions, for them to become talking-heads themselves and try to influence political races. It was, at least, unbecoming. And it opened up some conflicts of interest, maybe.
Miller is supposed to be an advisor to the president but it often seems he is more than that, a kind of manager of the president. (Then again, everyone seems to do that or think they can do that, with Trump at this stage.)
The Fox News crowd is going hard against Massie. They are calling him a puppet of the Democrats and un-American. Fox hosts across the board, it seems, are urging Kentuckians to vote for the other guy.
A few people on social media of some note are saying Massie must be defeated because he blocked the "Big Beautiful Bill"; and has a C+ score this term from NumbersUSA on immigration restriction; or other over-narrow issues like that. (The Trump people appointed Markwayne Mullin head of the Dept of Homeland Security, and Mullin himself had a C+ immigration-grade!)
These anti-Massie bandwagoneers are often social-media "hype" people who have some sort of recognizable name but aren't real principled people. They're often "selling something," especially their own images.
The long-standing, known-quantity principled men and women, like Steve Sailer and Ann Coulter (both endorsed Massie), aren't doing that kind of thing.
It was surprising to see Sailer endorse Massie (all but officially) because of how avoidant of politics he's been lately and how he says he never makes endorsements. But he did here.
_______
Stephen Miller came out in his usual style demanding the people of northern Kentucky defeat Massie and send Massie packing to some nether-region to never hear from him again. We can assume it's the "Israel thing," combined with (I'd suggest) Miller having fused his own ego with Trump's.
A funny thing about Stephen Miller, and one reason why I'm uncomfortable with him: there have been plenty of people in roles like his, in every presidency, but all but among the public no one but a few extreme inside-baseball politics-followers ever heard their names or heard from them. It wouldn't have been appropriate, these previous people in comparable positions, for them to become talking-heads themselves and try to influence political races. It was, at least, unbecoming. And it opened up some conflicts of interest, maybe.
Miller is supposed to be an advisor to the president but it often seems he is more than that, a kind of manager of the president. (Then again, everyone seems to do that or think they can do that, with Trump at this stage.)
Moderator
Tuesday - May 19th 2026 8:13AM MST
PS: Mr. Hail, I usually go to The Gateway Pundit for these simple factual stories, as in this case - how's the election going? However, I have to wade through more than half the stories that say "He DESTROYED so-and-so in this interview - WATCH!" and so on..
Moderator
Tuesday - May 19th 2026 8:11AM MST
PS: That's the one, Alarmist. On the Kentucky side, it's a narrow windy road up about 3 or 400 ft elevation. Good exercise.
About those markets. Would some people have enough money that they'd bet it what might have been a losing bet before? Well, I guess it's like influencing the markets - go big, and you'll get your money back and more.
About those markets. Would some people have enough money that they'd bet it what might have been a losing bet before? Well, I guess it's like influencing the markets - go big, and you'll get your money back and more.
Hail
Tuesday - May 19th 2026 7:11AM MST
PS
8h50m till polls close in the Massie race.
Polymarket has stabilized at 55% for the Other Guy to win. Total trade volume at $2.3 million.
Not sure how much it would cost an outside influencer to pump the Other Guy on Polymarket up by x points, but it'll be a lot less than the sum total AIPAC and co. spent on the race.
8h50m till polls close in the Massie race.
Polymarket has stabilized at 55% for the Other Guy to win. Total trade volume at $2.3 million.
Not sure how much it would cost an outside influencer to pump the Other Guy on Polymarket up by x points, but it'll be a lot less than the sum total AIPAC and co. spent on the race.
The Alarmist
Tuesday - May 19th 2026 6:01AM MST
PS
Anderson Ferry … I took it once to get from western Cincy to the airport when I-75 was a parking lot. You literally follow Andersen Ferry Road to get to it. It conveniently dumps you at the bottom of the hill just below their airport. I think I paid five bucks for the privilege.
I think the prediction markets are being distorted by (((outsider))) money (Sorry, could not resist).
🕉
Anderson Ferry … I took it once to get from western Cincy to the airport when I-75 was a parking lot. You literally follow Andersen Ferry Road to get to it. It conveniently dumps you at the bottom of the hill just below their airport. I think I paid five bucks for the privilege.
I think the prediction markets are being distorted by (((outsider))) money (Sorry, could not resist).
🕉
Moderator
Monday - May 18th 2026 7:21PM MST
PS: I guess those polymarket or whatever polls should be the best with people's money riding on them, but we'll just see tomorrow, guys. Yes, money has poured in from everywhere... for the one little Congressional race out of hundreds. It's about more than the one guy though.
I like that area, Alarmist, Hebron, Covington, etc. I think you can still get on this oldest ferry in the (something), started in 1817 to go from Kentucky to Ohio for 50 cents each way as a walk-on. Cars were about $8 or something... Fun.
I like that area, Alarmist, Hebron, Covington, etc. I think you can still get on this oldest ferry in the (something), started in 1817 to go from Kentucky to Ohio for 50 cents each way as a walk-on. Cars were about $8 or something... Fun.
The Alarmist
Monday - May 18th 2026 11:03AM MST
PS
As I said more than a year ago….
https://alarmist.substack.com/p/one-out-of-435-aint-bad
The Northern Kentucky suburbs are where a lot of Cincinnatians go to escape the diversity in what has become the 7th most dangerous cities, along with a bunch of good old boys and gals who don’t give a rat’s posterior for the modern state called Israel. It will be interesting to see how this breaks, absence fraud of course.
🕉
As I said more than a year ago….
https://alarmist.substack.com/p/one-out-of-435-aint-bad
The Northern Kentucky suburbs are where a lot of Cincinnatians go to escape the diversity in what has become the 7th most dangerous cities, along with a bunch of good old boys and gals who don’t give a rat’s posterior for the modern state called Israel. It will be interesting to see how this breaks, absence fraud of course.
🕉
Hail
Monday - May 18th 2026 8:05AM MST
PS
The Massie primary is the most expensive (due to AIPAC/Israel money), and may be one of the most-polled, House primaries in history.
If the polling has been methodologically sound, expect a 50-50 coin-flip result...
The Massie primary is the most expensive (due to AIPAC/Israel money), and may be one of the most-polled, House primaries in history.
If the polling has been methodologically sound, expect a 50-50 coin-flip result...
Real quote from tonight:
_________
“I would have come out sooner, but I had to call my opponent and concede, and it took a while to find 'Ed Gallrein' in Tel Aviv,” Massie said.
________